Cable companies anticipate reaching 62% of US households by 2026

Cable companies anticipate reaching 62% of US households by 2026. According to Kagan, a research branch of S&P Global Market Intelligence, residential broadband subscriptions are likely to exceed 122 million by the end of this year. Cable firms, which continue to dominate the residential broadband market, are expected to account for 61.9 percent of occupied households by 2026.

In terms of market share, Kagan expects that telecom firms will dominate 24.5 percent of the market in 2026, fixed wireless will increase from 8 percent to 12.6 percent, and residential satellite broadband will remain at 1%.

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Telcos are investing heavily in fiber as cable companies continue to extend their footprint, according to Kagan Research Director Ian Olgeirson. Telcos are attempting to modernize their traditional copper infrastructure, which provides broadband through DSL or fiber-to-the-node, whereas cable companies mostly use hybrid-fiber coax networks, which combine optical fiber and Ethernet connections.

Kagan expects that cable residential internet revenue would be about $63.7 billion by the end of 2022, rising to $76.7 billion by 2026. Whereas telecom broadband revenue is forecast to be $21.2 billion this year, rising to $26.2 billion over the following four years.

Cable companies anticipate reaching 62% of US households by 2026. Despite telecom investment efforts and a variety of broadband federal subsidies, Kagan predicts that telco broadband market share will fall below 25% by 2026. Long lead times for fiber-to-the-home improvements, as well as DSL overhang, have an influence on this estimate.

Having said that, Olgeirson believes that most telecom firms have committed to upgrading a section of their networks over the next five years. Indeed, Kagan forecasts that by 2026, fiber subscriptions would account for roughly three-quarters of all telco residential broadband connections.

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“Upgrading landline and wireline networks is a labor-intensive procedure – they surely can’t flick the switch and convert to fiber,” he added. “It takes time, and it will undoubtedly restrict some of the near-term growth prospects.”

With over 93 percent of U.S. homes linked to the internet, the Kagan research indicates a decline in new broadband customers as market rivalry heats up. The level of competitive pressure in such a mature and saturated sector “definitely stands out,” according to Olgeirson.

Cable companies anticipate reaching 62% of US households by 2026. Cable-side, According to Olgeirson, companies such as Comcast, Charter Communications, and Altice USA are anticipated to continue their market dominance. Charter expects to boost the number of broadband homes served by one million over the next five years, while Altice hopes to expand its fiber coverage to seven million homes in the same timeframe.

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Although Comcast’s broadband net additions fell 43 percent year over year in Q1 2022, CEO Dave Watson stated on the earnings call that the company is holding its own in the market despite competition from fiber and fixed wireless providers.

These three providers’ work is expected to boost cable broadband household subscribers to 83.2 million by 2026. Olgeirson also stated that, with their fiber network upgrades, AT&T and Verizon will likely remain important telecom participants in the market.
Satellite and wireless broadband have the smallest market share. Due to high prices and capacity limits from incumbents such as Hughesnet and Viasat, Kagan expects satellite broadband will retain a 1% market share for the next four years.

Cable companies anticipate reaching 62% of US households by 2026. Fixed wireless, on the other hand, is the fastest expanding of Kagan’s four categories, thanks to more homes opting for LTE and 5G mobile networks as their primary internet connection. Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile lead the pack, and Kagan predicts that wireless home broadband users will reach 9.5 million by year’s end, accounting for 7.2 percent of the US broadband market.

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